U.S. consumer inflation rose less than expected in January, indicating some moderation in prices, although core inflation proved more resistant at the start of the year, a scenario that could reinforce the Federal Reserve’s strategy of keeping interest rates unchanged for longer. This reading comes amid signs of stability in the labor market and price adjustments by companies in early 2026, reports Reuters.
According to data released this Friday (13) by the Labor Statistics Department of the Ministry of Labor, the consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.2% last month, after having advanced 0.3% in December. The result came below the projection of economists consulted by Reuters, who expected an increase of 0.3%.
The January report also included methodological changes: the government recalculated the seasonal adjustment factors to more accurately reflect price movements observed throughout 2025. The release of the data was slightly delayed due to the three-day shutdown of the federal government the previous week.
Analysts had been closely monitoring potential distortions caused by previous shutdowns. Last year, a longer interruption in government activities even prevented price collection in October, generating strong volatility in economic indicators. Economists expected this instability to be reduced in the January report.
n the 12 months ending in January, the CPI registered an increase of 2.4%, slowing down compared to the annual increase of 2.7% observed in December. According to the report, this reduction in the annual rate was mainly influenced by the removal of higher readings recorded last year from the comparison base.
Despite the slight improvement, inflation remains above the level considered ideal by monetary authorities. The Federal Reserve uses the PCE (personal consumption expenditures) index as its main benchmark to pursue its 2% inflation target. Both the CPI and the PCE remain above this target, keeping market attention focused on the central bank’s next steps.
The economic environment has also been influenced by employment trends. The U.S. government reported this week that job creation accelerated in January and that the unemployment rate fell from 4.4% in December to 4.3%, signaling that the labor market remains relatively strong.
Given this scenario, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate in the range of 3.50% to 3.75% last month, reinforcing its cautious stance in the face of still-resistant inflation, even with signs of slowing in some indicators.
Looking at what’s called core inflation — which excludes more volatile items like food and energy — the CPI advanced 0.3% in January, after rising 0.2% in December. Over the past 12 months, the core inflation rate increased by 2.5%, slightly below the 2.6% recorded in the previous month, also influenced by the removal of higher readings from last year.
According to the report’s analysis, the rise in core inflation during the month may have reflected typical one-off adjustments at the beginning of the year, in addition to the pass-through of tariffs implemented by US President Donald Trump, a factor that may have contributed to price pressure in certain sectors of the economy.
The behavior of inflation, coupled with job stability, strengthens the perception that the Federal Reserve may sustain interest rates at their current level for longer, while monitoring whether the slowdown observed in the headline rate will be sufficient to contain persistent inflation in the underlying components.
Source: brasil247.com